Almost 2,500 convicted rapists and child sex offenders could leave prison earlier under Labour’s plans to ease overcrowding in the United Kingdom.
According to The Telegraph’s analysis, 2,462 sexual offenders, including more than 100 rapists given sentences exceeding 15 years, may benefit from the decision.
The ‘earned progression’ programme, established by the Sentencing Act 2026, begins on 2 September and will be phased in according to sentence length until June 2027.
Prisoners serving eligible standard determinate sentences who would previously have been released after serving 40 or 50 per cent of their term could leave after one-third. Some serious violent and sexual offenders previously released after serving two-thirds could become eligible at the halfway point.
The release does not end their sentence completely. Offenders will initially face ‘intensive community supervision’, potentially including electronic tags, curfews, and geographical restrictions, and can be recalled for breaching licence conditions. Life prisoners, extended-sentence prisoners, and other offenders judged particularly dangerous are excluded. The Government says more than 18,000 prisoners will retain their existing arrangements.
Justice Secretary David Lammy has defended the policy, warning that abandoning it could leave prisons without sufficient capacity by November. Ministers say they are also building 14,000 prison places and expanding probation and electronic monitoring.
Conservatives have accused Labour of placing victims and the public at risk. On 7 July, MPs voted by 115 to zero in favour of a non-binding motion demanding that all sexual offenders be excluded from automatic early release. Victims’ commissioners and former safeguarding minister Jess Phillips have also called for a pause until stronger protections are in place.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage called the releases ‘utterly disgraceful’, saying Labour was placing almost 9,000 notified victims at risk. Reform advocates whole-life sentences for child rapists and additional prison construction.
The Ministry of Justice said on 13 July that release dates were still being recalculated and that it could not yet confirm how many offenders would leave custody earlier. Official figures show that 8,711 victims had received general notification letters, although ministers stressed that this was not an offender count.
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