‘Based on polling and betting odds, Francesca Hong seems to be a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination at this point’—we wrote last week in our article about the primary elections in Michigan and Wisconsin.
The self-proclaimed socialist—one of many in today’s Democratic Party—was running to become the Democratic nominee for Governor of Wisconsin, and was leading by double digits in every poll released after mid-July. In some, she had a lead of over 20 points. Her main opponent in the race, former Milwaukee County executive David Crowley, had already dropped out of the contest in July, but re-entered at the urging of the Democratic Party to provide an alternative to the far-left Hong.
Given all these circumstances, the prediction market site Polymarket gave Hong a 96 per cent (!) chance of clinching the nomination on the eve of the primary.
Yet, somehow, Crowley managed to pull off the narrowest of victories.
While the Associated Press called the election for Crowley on the same night, questions still lingered due to the extremely narrow difference and some irregularities—issues Republicans are too familiar with in the Badger State from the 2020 presidential election…
For instance, when the Wisconsin Elections Commission staff went to the local courthouse to upload the official absentee ballot tallies, it turned out that five out of the nine USB sticks used to transport the data did not have the results on them. They blamed the issue on 'human error'.
In the end, the final official results show Crowley beating Hong by 0.48 points, with just 3,800 separating the two candidates.
This must have come as a great relief to the Democratic Party, as Hong was expected to lose the general election to the Republican Tom Tiffany. She took highly controversial political positions in the past, such as advocating for abolishing the police since it 'exists to uphold white supremacy' and cancelling the Thanksgiving holiday due to its 'colonial past'.
Progressives Heavily Overpolled in Wisconsin and Michigan
Last week, Abdoul El-Sayed won his primary election for the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan by just one point, despite leading the RealClearPolling aggregate by over ten points going into the race. This week, as we wrote above, Hong fell short in Wisconsin despite leading by over 20 points in some polls.
While El-Sayed stops just short of adopting the socialist label for himself, he too is from the new, progressive wing of the Democratic Party. This could be a lesson for other such candidates, such as James Talarico in Texas: polling leads and being the betting favourite may just be the result of an enthusiastic online base for the candidate, which is in no way localized to the actual election they are competing in.
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