Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election by a landslide, delivering a crushing blow to Reform UK and dramatically strengthening his position as he prepares to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
The Greater Manchester Mayor secured 24,937 votes, or 55.4 per cent, while Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon finished a distant second with 15,696 votes, or 34.9 per cent. Rebecca Shepperd, running for Restore Britain, received 3,111 votes (6.9 per cent), followed by the Conservatives with 997 votes (2.2 per cent) and the Greens with 308 votes (0.7 per cent).
Burnham’s victory margin of 9,241 votes, or 20.5 percentage points, far exceeded expectations. Pre-election polling had suggested a competitive race, with some surveys placing Reform within striking distance of victory.
The result is likely to have immediate consequences within Labour. The by-election was triggered after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his seat specifically to allow Burnham to return to Westminster amid a growing revolt against Starmer’s leadership. Following Labour’s disastrous performance in the May local elections and Reform UK’s advances across England, more than 95 Labour MPs reportedly called for the prime minister’s resignation.
Burnham entered the contest as the most prominent figure associated with Labour’s anti-Starmer faction. During the campaign, reports emerged that his allies were preparing to present Starmer with a list of more than 80 Labour MPs willing to back a Burnham leadership bid in an effort to persuade him to step aside without a formal contest. Former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh publicly called for an ‘orderly and managed transition’, arguing that Labour faced an ‘existential crisis’ and risked losing the next general election to Reform if it failed to change direction.
The result is equally significant for Reform UK. Makerfield had been regarded as the party’s best opportunity yet to demonstrate that it could directly defeat Labour in one of its traditional working-class strongholds. Instead, Reform suffered a heavy defeat despite favourable national polling.
The outcome is also likely to deepen tensions on the British populist right. Throughout the campaign, Nigel Farage and senior Reform figures accused Restore Britain of splitting the anti-Labour vote, arguing that support for Rebecca Shepperd would ultimately benefit Burnham and Labour.
Those accusations are likely to continue following the result. Regardless, the outcome itself provides little evidence for claims that Restore Britain cost Reform the seat. Burnham’s winning margin of 9,241 votes was more than three times larger than the entire Restore Britain vote, making it difficult to explain Reform’s defeat solely through vote-splitting. Burnham also appears to have benefited from tactical voting on the left, with polling during the campaign suggesting that many Liberal Democrat and Green supporters were prepared to back Labour in order to prevent a Reform victory.
The result is therefore likely to raise broader questions about Reform’s campaign strategy, organization, and ability to translate strong national polling into parliamentary victories.
The by-election attracted extraordinary public interest, with turnout reaching 58.75 per cent—higher than the constituency’s turnout at the 2024 general election.
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