Support for the Tisza Party declined again within the margin of error in September, while Fidesz gained slightly and the share of voters without a party preference increased more significantly, according to a poll by Europion published on Wednesday.
The survey, conducted between 7–8 September among 2,100 people, found that 47 per cent of the total adult population would vote for Tisza, down from 49 per cent in August. Tisza has therefore moved closer to its April support level of 44 per cent among the total domestic population and has lost five percentage points from its May–June peak, representing roughly one in ten of its supporters, Europion said.
Tisza nevertheless retains an absolute majority in several groups, including Budapest, where it has 56 per cent support, county-seat cities with 51 per cent, voters under 40 with 52 per cent and, most notably, university graduates with 62 per cent.
A similar decline was recorded among voters with a stated party preference and among those considered certain to vote. Tisza’s support among party-preferring voters fell from 58 per cent in August to 57 per cent, while its share among certain voters dropped from 61 per cent to 59 per cent.
Europion noted that these monthly changes remain within the margin of error, but said Tisza had lost four to five percentage points on all three measures since its May–June peak.
The pollster cautioned against describing the situation as a sharply intensifying party race, saying neither Fidesz nor Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) had convincingly benefited from Tisza’s decline.
Fidesz’s support among party-preferring voters stood at 26 per cent, up one percentage point from August, while its support among certain voters rose by two points to 27 per cent. Our Homeland remained unchanged compared with August, at 10 per cent among the total population, 12 per cent among party-preferring voters and 10 per cent among certain voters.
The largest movement was recorded among voters without a party preference. Their share rose from 15 per cent in August to 18 per cent in September.
Voter participation also showed signs of weakening. While 74 per cent of respondents in August said they would definitely vote if a parliamentary election were held the following Sunday, the figure fell to 69 per cent in September.
The decline was particularly pronounced among younger voters. Only 53 per cent of those under 30 said they were certain to participate in an election.
Dávid Vitézy retained his position at the top of Europion’s politician popularity ranking following his breakthrough in August. The transport and energy minister was viewed as a person respondents would rather or very much like to see in an important public role by 52 per cent, putting him three percentage points ahead of Prime Minister Péter Magyar and seven points ahead of Parliamentary Speaker Ágnes Forsthoffer.
They were followed by Economic and Energy Minister István Kapitány and Foreign Minister Anita Orbán, both on 43 per cent. Bálint Ruff, head of the Prime Minister’s Office, ranked next with a 38 per cent approval rating.
Among opposition politicians, former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán improved his position. The share of respondents who would like to see him in an important public role rose from 28 per cent in August to 31 per cent in September, putting him level with László Toroczkai, leader of the Our Homeland Movement.
At the same time, Europion said Orbán remained by far the most rejected Hungarian politician, with 47 per cent of respondents saying they did not want to see him in an important public role at all, giving him the lowest possible score of one on a five-point scale.
The poll also found that President András Baka remains largely unknown to the Hungarian public. Only 53 per cent of respondents were able to express an opinion of him, although positive views outnumbered negative ones among those respondents, at 30 per cent and 23 per cent respectively.
Europion also examined how Hungarians assess major developments and events since the Tisza government took office.
The European policy shift and the issue of EU funds ranked highest in terms of satisfaction with the government’s performance, at 52 per cent. This was followed by the handling of the summer energy crisis at 50 per cent and the process surrounding the 17th constitutional amendment at 48 per cent. The latter also recorded a relatively high level of opposition, at 31 per cent.
The least popular areas were the investigation and review of matters linked to the previous government, at 42 per cent; the establishment and selection of the head of the National Asset Recovery and Asset Protection Office (NVVH), at 41 per cent; and the process of appointing the new head of state, at 39 per cent, according to the survey.
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