With the Hungarian parliamentary election just two weeks away, opposition forces in Hungary would like to have you believe that the Tisza Party’s Péter Magyar is a shoo-in for the next Prime Minister of Hungary. However, it seems that even some of PM Orbán’s staunchest opponents in Brussels, Belgium do not believe that is the case.
POLITICO, based on information given to them by 10 anonymous ‘EU diplomats’, reports that EU leadership is preparing contingency plans on how to deal with a fifth consecutive Orbán term in one of their Member States.
If that is what in fact transpires two weeks from now, ‘the gloves will come off,’ one of the EU diplomats ominously told POLITICO.
According to the news site, Brussels would be willing to apply qualified majority voting (QMV), which requires 55 per cent of Member States representing at least 65 per cent of the EU population, to matters that currently require unanimous decision-making, such as the seven-year EU budget.
Also, ideologically aligned countries could form ‘coalitions of the willing’ within the EU and make a joint effort on tackling issues PM Orbán may object to, such as military support for Ukraine. Still according to the POLITICO piece, the judicial branch of the Union is prepared to issue further fines to Hungary, in addition to the €1 million a day penalty the country is currently getting for violating the terms of the 2024 EU Migrant Pact. However, that may be a moot point, given that Hungary has had the vast majority of its due EU cohesion funds suspended since 2021, and none of them have been released since December 2023.
Stripping Hungary of its voting rights within the EU Council is also on the table in case of another Fidesz victory, the author continues. Article 7 of the EU treaties does give the Council that right; and the European Parliament has already triggered Article 7 procedures against Hungary. However, EU diplomats told the site that it is a difficult procedure to implement, given that it requires all of the other 26 EU Member States to approve. Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia is one sure holdout, the POLITICO sources agreed. Also, Prime Minister Andrej Babiš of Czechia is another close ally of PM Orbán in the region.
Scenario #5, the last on the list, to handle PM Orbán’s victory on Brussels’ part is Hungary’s expulsion from the European Union. This, however, is extremely unlikely, the cited EU diplomats point out. There is no clear mechanism for that in the EU treaties. If Brussels were to get ‘creative’ with the interpretation of the treaties again, they would have to use Article 50, the Exit Clause that the United Kingdom triggered in 2016, and involuntarily apply that to Hungary, the piece by POLITICO writes.
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