The Democrats’ lead has shrunk to 4.8 points in the Congressional generic ballot polling for the 2026 midterms in RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate. That is a 3.3-point shift towards the GOP nationally since late May, when Democrats were leading by 8.1 points.
Dissatisfaction with the impact of the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and the following war was the main catalyst for the opposition’s surge in polling. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices spiked in the international commodities markets, and consequently, gasoline prices rose for American consumers.
On 21 May, according to AAA’s tracker, a gallon of gas cost $4.564 on average in the US. That was within half a dollar of the all-time high of $5.016, set in June 2022 under President Biden, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
However, as diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran gained steam, gas prices also started to come down. Today, 19 June, the national average stands at $3.973 for a gallon of gas.
A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been signed by both the American and the Iranian delegation. However, it was done so electronically, not at a ceremonial signing in Geneva, Switzerland, as originally intended. This change was made presumably due to the criticism President Trump had gotten for the concessions he made to the Iranian regime in the deal.
He got particular scrutiny over a $300 billion private investment fund, which Reuters reported was included in the deal based on an anonymous source. Some misinterpreted this information as a $300 billion war reparation to Iran from the US federal government, hence the backlash.
Can Republicans Hold the House in the 2026 Midterms?
Given recent historical patterns, that is still quite a challenge for the incumbent Republican Party.
Since 1994, the party of the sitting President has always failed to hold onto or regain the majority in the House of Representatives in midterm elections, with one exception. That exception was in 2002, when the Republican Party under President George W Bush was able to not only keep, but also increase its majority by eight seats in the lower chamber of Congress. However, that happened barely over a year after the 9/11 terror attacks, one of the greatest tragedies in American history, after which President Bush’s approval rating shot up to as high as 90 per cent.
There is something unique working in favour of the Republicans this year. In April, the US Supreme Court sided with Louisiana in Louisiana v Callais, ruling that states are not obliged to create congressional districts where national minorities are in the majority, proportionate to their state population.
This opened the door for Republican stronghold states in the South to do away with their majority-black districts. However, that is a slow process, and it is unlikely that many of these new maps would be in place in time for the Midterms.
In fact, Alabama already made an attempt at redistricting, but it was blocked by a panel of federal judges. With the ruling, Louisiana’s map did revert to the one passed by the State Legislature before the legal challenge, thus Democrats presumably lost one seat already in the Bayou State.
Keep in mind, however, that margins are also crucial. If the GOP, as it is likely, loses its majority in the House, it can still put on a successful performance in the Midterms if they keep the Democratic majority very narrow, much like the Democrats did in the 2022 elections.
Should Republicans win at least 210 seats, a Democratic majority would be small enough to complicate efforts by the opposition to use procedural leverage against President Trump's administration. A narrow margin would leave Democratic leaders with little room for defections from members representing competitive districts.
This could prove particularly important during future budget negotiations. If Republicans are only a handful of seats short of a majority, Democrats in swing districts may be reluctant to support a prolonged confrontation that could result in another government shutdown, like the one we saw in the fall of 2025 perpetuated by Senate Democrats. Such members would likely face pressure from constituents to pursue a compromise rather than engage in a lengthy partisan standoff.
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