As we near the midpoint of the second term of the Trump Presidency, most around the world have begun to assume that ‘America First’ means ‘America Only’. That assumption couldn’t be further from the truth. Rather, current U.S. policy seems to reaffirm the U.S.’s commitment to preserving the current rules-based world order and seeks increased engagement, not withdrawal, from its allies and partners across the globe.
The United States of the 21st century seems to be operating under a framework that I describe as ‘Strategic Complementarity’. Facing the realities of the new great power competition, the United States has ceased to evaluate its alliances based on historical agreements and traditional troop deployments. Rather, it is seeking allies to fill strategic niches and capability gaps it needs to preserve the current world order. In response to America’s assertions that allies should contribute more, many in Europe have taken this as a clear signal to seek independence from U.S. security guarantees.
But increased responsibility and cost-sharing isn’t a push to completely separate European and American interests as the U.S. begins to pivot the majority of its attention toward the Pacific. On the contrary, it’s the U.S. pushing its European allies to adapt and focus on their personal strengths to strengthen the security and cohesion of the current U.S.-led alliance framework.
Simply put, ‘Strategic Complementarity’ is best defined as the principle that alliances and relationships are strongest when each partner within that system develops strategically distinctive and niche capabilities that complement and strengthen the collective resilience, lethality, and deterrence capabilities of the alliance or partnership. Under this framework, allies don’t merely try to replicate each other’s capabilities; they seek to see how they can use their own to best complement each other.
While the U.S. is clearly seeking a blanket increase in input from its allies across the board as we contend with new, rising challengers to the current global order, that doesn’t mean it expects each country to become exactly like the U.S. Instead, it expects its allies to invest in their relatively specialized capabilities that provide the greatest assets for maintaining allied dominance.
It is more than just increased troop deployments or more monetary assets in NATO’s coffers. It’s about specialization. For each U.S. ally, that means something different. Perhaps, in the context of Europe, Estonia provides the greatest example of ‘Strategic Complementarity’ in practice. Estonia, a small nation of only around 1.5 million people and ranking as the 32nd largest economy in Europe GDP-wise, has consistently been viewed by Washington as one of the U.S.’s most dependable allies. And that sentiment hasn’t changed in the era of Trump 2.0. While the U.S. has been redistributing its forces towards the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. Congress voted to increase its defense spending in Estonia. Why? It’s more than just the reality of Estonia’s geography; it’s how Estonia has leveraged itself to be the greatest asset it can be to NATO and the United States.
Due to its proximity to Russia, Estonia has suffered from being Russia’s preferred target for testing out its new cyber and hybrid warfare techniques, beginning back in 2007. Finding itself the primary target of persistent cyberattacks, Estonia eventually developed a robust immune system against cyber threats, to the extent that today, in 2026, it is not only seen as a global leader in cyber defense but also a world-leading advocate for e-democracy and governance.
‘Specialization and diversification are necessary if our alliance is to survive the new emerging threats of the 21st century’
This is ‘Strategic Complementarity‘ in practice. Estonia has successfully identified a capability gap within NATO, specialized in addressing it, and made itself indispensable within the U.S.-led alliance framework. Today, in 2026, there are several niches and capability gaps that European partners are best suited to fill to revamp and increase NATO’s lethal and deterrent capabilities. It’s not simply about increasing defense spending. It’s how those increased resources are adequately allocated.
With the U.S. being forced to reprioritize and shift focus towards Asia, reality is setting in that no singular actor can adequately cover every factor in collective security. Specialization and diversification are necessary if our alliance is to survive the new emerging threats of the 21st century.
From the growing security concerns in the Arctic, the greater need for air policing along the Sulwalki Gap, to the re-industrialization of key allied production capabilities (from ammunition production to rare-earth processing), there is no shortage of capability gaps that need filling. And many in Europe are uniquely suited to these tasks.
From Norway’s expertise in Arctic capabilities to Czechia’s munitions production and Poland’s historic increases in land force capabilities, each of the European allies has a natural niche they fill in the broader alliance system. While some key across-the-board increases—such as larger troop numbers and higher defense spending as a percentage of GDP—are necessary to truly safeguard our alliance, European allies must also ask themselves how they can most effectively complement one another and the U.S. to ensure the alliance’s long-term endurance.
The future of our current rules-based international order depends on greater coordination among the world’s democracies. Each ally has their role to fill, and it’s up to them to double down on what they bring to the table.
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